Clark & Addison Blog - CubHub.net

Lou Piniella has apparently anointed Reed Johnson for his lead-off batter in Alfonso Soriano’s absence.  Of course Lou is apt to change his mind on occasion, but for now that’s the way it is.  Reed provides some spark and has a gamer attitude, but he’s far from the prototypical #1 slot hitter based on his numbers.

Johnson has a .342 on-base percentage which is actually ten points higher than Soriano. But the entire world knows Soriano is a free-swinger and OBP is not his claim to fame.  Johnson is batting just .267 this year and has 13 walks in 176 at bats. He doesn’t steal bases with just 4 bags all year. So why then does Lou want him in the leadoff spot? 

Ryan Theriot is batting .310 with a .388 OBP. He leads the team with 13 steals and has 32 walks. He, too, is a gamer who can work the count and makes contact with just 23 strikeouts as compared to Johnson’s 28 k’s in 76 fewer at bats.  So why is Lou not comfortable with Theriot batting lead-off with Fukudome 2nd, followed by Lee, Ramirez, Soto…?  This was the lineup I advocated in March (with the exception of Soriano in the 5th spot).  Statistcally, this lineup matches the modern day thinking of ideal hitters for each slot.  You want an on-base guy who can run leading off, a contact guy who can hit situationally second, your best overall hitter third, your power guy in cleanup, and a big bat in the 5th hole to protect your cleanup guy.  That’s how you draw it up on paper and if you have the personnel, its a winning formula. 

So tell me why Lou doesn’t buy into this?  Sure, hard to argue with the manager of a team 20 games over .500 in June, but surely worth discussion…

A rare season this is as the Cubs and White Sox prepare to face off the next two weekends on the Northside and Southside; both teams are in first place! Usually, these cross-town series are pretty much the peak of one team or the other’s season.  Often by mid-June one team is clearly an also-ran and their one “moral victory” can come at the expense of crushing their cross-town rivals.  But not this year - these games mean something big to both teams. 

You want tickets for games at either Wrigley Field or US Cellular field to be a part of this madness?  They aren’t cheap, but they certainly are available.  Go to Stub Hub for a safe way to get the seats you want from the Official Ticket Reseller of MLB.  Also, if you want to actually see the view from the seating section you want to sit in, check out this new feature on the CubHub.net “Plan Your Game” section of the main site:  Seat Data went around to each section of both Wrigley and US Cellular and snapped photos of the field to show the view from each section!  What a great idea that was - takes a lot of guessing out of buying tickets.  GO CUBS!

Who can score from the 7-8-9 slots?

June 12, 2008
The Chicago Cubs have the best record in baseball. But here in Chicago the debate continues—where should Alfonso Soriano bat? It will be a moot point for the next six weeks or so because Soriano broke a bone in his left hand after getting hit by a pitch last night.

The key reason that many folks want to see Soriano bat further down in the lineup is his power. Soriano has a ton of solo home runs, and game lead-off home runs. It’s nice to get that 1-0 lead after your first batter of the game, but wouldn’t it be nicer if some of those home runs came with men on base?

The Cubs are winning and all things are rosy on the north side of Chicago. People are beginning to lighten up on Soriano. One of the reasons is that the hitters ahead of Soriano are scoring runs, despite the fact that it’s the weakest part of the lineup. The average National League team (not counting the Cubs) has scored 66 runs out of their 7, 8 and 9 slots so far this year. The second-best team, the Phillies, have scored 80 runs from their 7-8-9 slots. The Cubs have scored 92. They are scoring almost 50% more runs than the other NL teams from their 7-8-9

Even the nine slot is hitting .238 for the Cubs. Compare that to the average pitcher who hits about .140. Counting pinch hitters, double switches, and the Tony La Russa strategy of batting your pitcher eighth, the National League nine hole is averaging a .182 batting average overall.

Over in the American League, only two teams have a higher OPS than the Cubs out of their 7-8-9 slots. The White Sox have the best (.804), the Red Sox number two (.758), and the Cubs have the third best (.756) in all of baseball despite having their pitchers bat.

Source: Baseball Info Solutions (through games of Wednesday, June 11, 2008)

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.

I can’t say I’ve ever heard of a walk-off beanball winning a game in the major leagues.  Tied 2-2 in the 10th, Ramirez walked, Fukudome intentionally walked, Soto singled loading the bags for Edmonds. Reed Johnson pinch hits, and does so literally:  He was beaned in the leg on the first pitch driving in the winning run!  This must be Our Year…

With Soriano on the shelf until late July, looks like the team will call up Micah Hoffpauir again. This will give them a corner outfielder with (so far) a decent stick. I think we will see plenty of Mark DeRosain Left with Mike Fontenot at second, and Reed Johnson in Left with Jim Edmonds in Center.  This injury pretty much assures Edmonds will stick with the Cubs at least a few more weeks.  As I’ve written in the past, I want to see what Edmonds will do against the Cardinals when we play them July 4th weekend in St. Louis - now without Pujols or Soriano.

What will be interesting to see is how this may affect Jim Hendry’s trade deadline (July 31) strategy. While the Soriano injury shouldn’t be the kind that lingers or will dampen his abilities later in the season, it does thin out the depth of bench and minor leaguer options for the Cubs GM.  This could impact Hendry’s ability to make a deal late in July when some high-salary players will become available and the Cubs will have to move some young talent to get them.

No doubt the Cubs will try to fill some needs through trade deadline dealing. Starting pitching is a concern; the patchwork center field position could benefit from a legit everyday player; and always a left handed bat off the bench is on the shopping list.  Plus, if there are more injuries…there could be other needs not apparent right now.  The Cubs can trade from a place of strength right now with some major league ready young arms. As usual they have few if any position players that would interest many teams.  But with Soriano’s absence, Hendry will have to take another look at where he is and what’s available.

I heard a lot of chatter yesterday about how the Cardinals will finally fall back down to earth in losing Albert Pujols until the All-Star break. Cubs fans were privately rejoicing in his injury, feeling like maybe this really is Our Year. A few hours later though, Alfonso Soriano takes a pitch off his ring finger knuckle on his left hand, knocking him out as well. Soriano may actually be out longer than Pujols with the early prognosis of 6 weeks on the DL.  That actually puts his return somewhere between the All Star Game and the trading deadline. I think there is some mystical karma at work here in the Cards losing Pujols and the Cubs losing Soriano within about 24 hours of each other.  The moral for we Cub fans is to be careful when we wish others poorly, as that karma train can come backing into the station at any time, often right over your foot!  Be humble and keep winning, the rest will take care of itself.