Cubs 98.9% Playoff Bound

The good folks at BaseballProspectus have run a simulation to determine the statistical chances of teams making the 2008 playoffs. Running the remainder of the season one million times, they show the Cubs as 89.12% certain to win the division, with another 9.81% chance of being the Wild Card entry, if they were come in second to the Brewers. This gives the 2008 Chicago Cubs a statistical chance of 98.93721% to make the playoffs!

Sure, I’m drinking the Cubbie Kool-Aid, but here is actually something scientific to stand on. The ’08 Chicago Cubs will play meaningful baseball in October. That’s all well and good, but it is equally fair to point out there is a chance (~1.6%) they don’t make it too.  But let’s focus on finishing the season strong and lining up well for – at least – the divisional playoffs.

This simulation shows the division winners as the Cubs & Mets, with a toss up in the West of the Dodgers & D’Backs and Brewers as Wild Card.  The Cubs would have the best record which would usually get the Wild Card in Round 1 (NLDS), but two teams from the same division cannot play each other in the NLDS. So the Cubs would play, according to Baseball Prospectus, the winner of the NL-West.  So who would you rather play, Arizona or LA???

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    August 19, 2008   Posted in: rivalries, standings, stats

    2 Responses

    1. Donna - August 20, 2008

      1969.

    2. admin - August 20, 2008

      Ouch. Yes, 1969 saw a collapse of epic proportion. But really, what are the odds of such a record collapse happening again to the same franchise? I mean the only guy who is still on the club payroll from that year is Yosh Kawano! (Santo is a WGN employee)

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