John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™

What’s A-Rod’s Favorite Toy?

No, I’m not going to talk about that! (much)

Bill James created a method (for details see “Career Targets” in The Bill James Handbook 2009) called “The Favorite Toy” to estimate the probability that a player will achieve a specific career goal like career hits or home runs. The basic components of this are the estimated years remaining in his career and the established level of performance.
This method uses the last three seasons to establish performance level. Let’s hope that all these high performing players are doing so as they have said: honestly.

What is the probability of an active player hitting 700 career Home Runs?

Alex Rodriguez

90%

Albert Pujols

19%

Adam Dunn

16%

Ryan Howard

16%

Prince Fielder

9%

Jim Thome

6%

Miguel Cabrera

5%

Manny Ramirez

4%

Ken Griffey Jr.

3%

A-Rod is pretty much a sure thing. What are the chances of an active player breaking the career home run record of 762 set by (cough) Barry Bonds?

Alex Rodriguez

49%

Ryan Howard

9%

Albert Pujols

9%

Adam Dunn

8%

Prince Fielder

3%

A-Rod basically has a 50-50 chance. Anyone with a chance of 800?

Alex Rodriguez

34%

Ryan Howard

5%

Albert Pujols

4%

Adam Dunn

4%

Prince Fielder

<1%

A-Rod still at 34%. Any chance of 900?

Alex Rodriguez

10%

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, http://www.statoftheweek.com/.

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    February 12, 2009  Tags: , , ,   Posted in: John Dewan, Stat of the Week, stats

    One Response

    1. William Tasker - February 13, 2009

      Cool stat. Rob Neyer insists that A-Rod would have the same amount of homers he has whether he did steroids or not.

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