Archive for the ‘playoffs’ Category

Cubs Choke is Hard to Swallow

Monday, October 20th, 2008

I have been reluctant to write about the astonishing collapse of the 2008 Cubs team during this post-mortem interval. The fan in me died another death watching this Cubs team, like so many Cubs teams before it, collapse under the weight of major league playoff baseball. Not every team can win it all, to be sure. But given how this franchise played throughout the 161-game grind (1 game cancelled due to hurricane Ike was not made up), finishing with the best record in the National League,  I expected more of a fight in October. Again. It is nearly unbelievable to me that this Cubs team would play almost identical baseball as the 2007 Cubs did last October. 

The bats were absent again this year even though the team hit for slightly higher average.  Take a look at team stats the past two postseasons:

  • 2008 Cubs NLDS:  .240 ave, 1 HR, 6 RBI, .282 on-base pct, .346 slugging
  • 2007 Cubs NLDS: .194 ave, 1 HR, 6 RBI, .307 on-base, .305 slugging

Mind boggling how inept both Cubs teams were in the playoffs. Those are not the numbers of a winning team. Maybe this collection of players is just not ready for prime time.  Maybe the are marathoners and not sprinters. Maybe they simply aren’t clutch. It pains me to say it, but these guys are chokers - in the most classic definition of the word. They choke. They cannot perform when the lights are bright and the ivy is brown. They played scared, they played tight, they pressed, they panicked …they choked.

It is true to say the players have to play but I lay a good deal of responsibility at the feet of manager Lou Piniella. Anyone can second guess after the fact, but the fact is Lou’s team was not ready to play. You could see it in their eyes, they were scared and desperate almost from the first pitch of game one. Their defensive and offensive fundamentals fell apart. Their renown patience at the plate vanished. This team was mentally beat to start each game. There was no fight in them, the big guys weren’t hitting, their sure handed glove men were booting the ball all over the place, it was embarrassing to watch it unfold. I thought to myself with each game that they would pull it together at any time. Get the clutch base hit; hit behind the runner; take a pitch or two; foul one off…what happened to situational hitting? 

When your game one starter is over throwing and missing his spots, walking 7 guys in less than 5 innings, getting out of a bases loaded jam in the 3rd, tell me how in the world a manager lets him walk the bases loaded again while down 2-0 in a playoff game?  How does that happen?  Ryan Dempster should have never had the opportunity to walk those 6th & 7th guys. The whole team was fully rested and healthy. There was a bullpen full of arms down there to draw from. It obviously wasn’t Dempster’s night - as good of a season as he’d had, particularly at Wrigley Field, he just didn’t have it on that night. Allowing the Grand Slam to Loney wasn’t the mistake. Lou Piniella allowing his starter to work through a second bases loaded situation was the critical error here. Blame goes to Lou on this one.

In game three, facing elimination, Rich Harden is throwing a decent game but not spectacular. His velocity is down and he is not sharp. Knowing how this team - facing elimination and on the road - is struggling mightily at the plate, how can it be that Sweet Lou allows Joe Torre to walk Ryan Theriot with Geovany Soto dying on second after leading off with a double followed by two ground-outs, leaving Rich Harden one of the weakest hitting pitchers on either team to bat with 2 outs and two on?  Lou had to let him bat because no one was up in the bullpen. The Cubs were down 2-0, facing elimination and unable to score runs and Lou lets Harden strike out to kill the chance to score some precious, elusive runs. Torre out-smarted Lou here, by walking Theriot to force Harden to the plate thereby killing the rally because Lou didn’t see it coming. No one was warming in the bullpen so Lou was left with no choice but to let Harden bat and make his sure out. So sealed the fate of the 2008 Chicago Cubs.

Like many Cub fans, I was stunned by this team’s utter lack of good baseball in the playoffs. I not only wanted more, but expected more from this team. Not because Ron Santo proclaimed “This Is The Year”, but because this was the best Cubs team from every perspective I have seen in my lifetime. The could hit for average, hit for power, field, pitch, come from behind, blow out an opponent, and win ballgames. This was a complete team, not dependent on one, two or even three key players, but really everyone contributed from top to bottom. Five guys with 20+ HRs, four pitchers with double digit wins, the team won 97 games and could have won a hundred if the division were in play longer.  But in October, this Cubs team choked.  And that reality is hard to swallow.





It’s Harden or Go Home

Saturday, October 4th, 2008

Tonight Rich Harden will throw the most critical game of the Cubs season so far. ESPN’s Bruce Levine came up with this stat: Harden is 34-0 in his career when his team scores at least 4 runs. So the offense will need to show up, Harden will have to throw his usual game, and Lou will have to manage like this is a playoff elimination game. He can’t let his starter work out of repeated jams (like allowing Dempster to walk the bases loaded twice in game 1) - everyone is available - there is no tomorrow.

Ideally if Harden can give us 7 strong “Rich Harden-type” innings, then Marmol and Wood can do what they’ve done all year, then we go to Game 4 on Sunday. If Harden only has 5 or 6 innings in him, Lou has slotted Ryan Dempster for middle relief. But any way you shake it, the offense has to step up for a win to be possible.  And don’t forget Hiroki Kuroda shut the Cubs out on June 6th this year.

Joe Girardi was Sports Central with David Kaplan last night. He told a story of how when with Yankees they were facing elimination and being swept. Joe Torre’s message to the team was to just go out and win one game so they don’t get swept. Just one, to maintain their self respect. The Yankees went on to win the series.

So tonight it’s Harden or go home. 


11 Victories To Go

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

Thirty minutes or so from the first pitch of the Cubs Postseason run, I find myself percolating with anticipation. Not entirely unlike the hours leading up to opening day but different in that I know how good this team is. 

In the spring, excitement comes from potential of what might be.  Today it comes from the knowledge that this is a very good, well balanced team that made it through the grind of the season to come out as best team in the NL.  Now it is show time.  Now they need to take all that talent, all that accomplishment, and apply it when it really matters.  This is it - leave it on the field, save nothing for tomorrow. 

There is a unique anxiety that comes with expectation. I also recognize there is an element of luck and timing that must also line up to close the deal. In the David Mammet play (and movie) “Glengarry Glen Ross”, they use the line coffee is for closers

Here’s to you, Chicago Cubs of 2008:

Now close the deal!




Game 1 Lineup

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

Fukudome gets the start in Right on a chilly day at Wrigley…

  1. Alfonso Soraino - LF
  2. Kosuke Fukudome - RF
  3. Derrek Lee - 1B
  4. Aramis Ramirez - 3B
  5. Geovany Soto - C
  6. Jim Edmonds - CF
  7. Mark DeRosa - 2B
  8. Ryan Theriot - SS
  9. Ryan Dempster - P

If you haven’t already, get your free download: A Fan’s Guide to the 2008 Cubs Playoffs from CubHub.net!

NLDS Game 1 Matchup

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

After what seems like an eternity since the Cubs clinched the division, Game One of NLDS is finally here. The Cubs will host games 1, 2 and 5 (if necessary) at Wrigley Field, while the series moves West to Chavez Ravine in LA for games 3 & 4.

Game 1 pitchers will be Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96) for the Cubs and Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24) for the Dodgers. Lowe has always pitched well against the Cubs, particularly at Wrigley Field. In combing through the numbers, here are some of the nuggets I found:

Ryan Dempster
-> Has been dominant at Wrigley, going 14-3, 2.86 ERA
-> He is 1-0 in 2 starts, 12.1 innings, 2.92 ERA vs Dodgers in 2008
-> His only post-season appearance 1.0 IP vs Arizona in ‘07 NLDS
-> Career 4-3, 3.01 ERA in 9 starts vs Dodgers
-> Jeff Kent is 3 for 6 including a HR vs Dempster in 2008
-> Kent is hitting .289 career vs Cubs with 25 HRs 104 RBI
-> Dodgers are batting .223 as a team in 3 games at Wrigley this year
-> Manny Ramirez has a career .282 average in 39 AB vs Cubs

Derek Lowe
-> 5-6 record in 17 road starts with 4.42 ERA in 2008
-> 1-0 in 2 starts vs Cubs with 1.93 ERA this year
-> Has 18 career postseason starts with a 5-4 record, 3.34 ERA
-> Lifetime vs Cubs: 2-1 with 5 no decisions, 3.25 ERA
-> No Cub has more than 1 hit against Lowe in 2008
-> Cubs team hitting .238 in 7 games vs Dodgers in 2008

To be honest, my memory is the Cubs did better against the Dodgers this year. But the numbers are what they are - even with a few surprises.  I hadn’t realized the postseason experience difference between these two guys.  Guess I didn’t pay as much attention to the American League when Lowe was tearing it up with Boston.  Still, I don’t think of Lowe as a dominant force, but against the Cubs he had a 7-inning, 4-hit, 0-run outing in May this year, and a 1-hit shutout against them in 2005 (I was at that game - ug).

Game one could be a tough one…

If you haven’t already, get your free download: A Fan’s Guide to the 2008 Cubs Playoffs from CubHub.net!



Cubs-Dodgers NLDS Preview

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

Here’s how the Chicago Cubs (97-64) stack up against the Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78) going into the 2008 National League Divisional Series. 

First Base

Derrek Lee - Cubs vs James Loney - Dodgers: Lee is higher in virtually all offensive categories, and is a Multiple Gold Glover.  Advantage: Cubs

Second Base

Mark DeRosa - Cubs vs Jeff Kent- Dodgers:  DeRosa is arguably the Cubs MVP for his versatility and reliability. He set career highs in average, HRs, RBI & Runs. Kent is a 17 year veteran who is definitely past his prime. While his numbers are below career averages, he has been prolific against the Cubs over his career. If Kent is healthy, this one is a toss up.

Shortstop

Ryan Theriot - Cubs vs Angel Berroa/Raphael Furcal- Dodgers:  Furcal only returned from injury the last week of the season. Logic dictates he will split time with Berroa. Furcal brings a big bat, but Theriot brings consistent on-base with a .307 season average and .387 on-base. If Berroa plays, clear edge to Theriot. If Furcal plays and is healthy, toss-up leaning toward Furcal, but those are a lot of “ifs”.  Edge to Cubs for consistency.

Third Base

Aramis Ramirez - Cubs vs Blake DeWitt - Dodgers: A-Ram brings his big, clutch stick and underrated defense. DeWitt’s .260 average and 9 bombs pales in comparison. Clear edge to Cubs.

Left Field

Alfonso Soriano - Cubs vs Manny Ramirez- Dodgers: Manny has been super-human since becoming a Dodger 53 games ago. He hit nearly .400 with 17 bombs and an RBI per game, carry the Dodgers into the playoffs. Soriano is no slouch and can easily rival those numbers on one of his 10-day tears, but short of that, it’s all Manny. Clear edge to Dodgers.

Center Field

Edmonds/Johnson - Cubs vs Matt Kemp- Dodgers: One of the most productive platoons of all time, Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson have combined for very solid numbers out of the CF position, each with many clutch hits as well. Their defense has been from good to great with some very big plays sprinkled in. Kemp is very solid offensively and can steal you a bag when needed. Lots of strikeouts, but overall I think the CF magic comes from the Northsiders. Toss up to slight edge to the Cubs.

Right Field

Kosuke Fukudome - Cubs vs. Andre Ethier- Dodgers: Kosuke started out strong at the plate but has not made the necessary adjustments to the league after July 1st. He is a liability at the plate these days but a stellar defender. Ethier is a .300 hitter with some pop and has been hot lately. Edge to the Dodgers. 

Catcher

Geovany Soto - Cubs vs Russell Martin- Dodgers: Runaway Rookie of the Year candidate Geovany Soto has been nothing short of excellent. He hits for average, for power, in the clutch, can handle the pitchers, and gun down runners. The only single category I can give to Martin is he is faster - although Soto had an inside the park homer this year. Russell Martin is no slouch, but Soto wins this one. Edge to Cubs.

Starting Pitching

Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly - Cubs; Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw- Dodgers:  With little doubt, both of these teams can pitch. The Cubs have guys who can absolutely shut you down on a given night while the Dodgers run out guys who keep them in games and give them the chance to win. If they are on, the Cubs will dominate here, but the Dodgers rotation should not be overlooked. Derek Lowe in particular has pitched very well against the Cubs, particularly in Wrigley Field. Edge to the Cubs.

The Bullpen

Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Neal Cotts, Jeff Samardzjia, Jason Marquis - Cubs; Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Beimel, Cory Wade, Chan Ho Park, Greg Maddux(!) - Dodgers: In Wood & Marmol, the Cubs have a ‘game over’ setup-closer combination. Getting to the 8th often requires a 7th inning reliever and this has been less of a sure thing for the Cubs. The Dodgers bring Saito, Beimel and flamethrower Broxton with Maddux as a potential wild card. From an ERA perspective, the Dodgers have the numbers but if the Cub starters can go 7 innings, Cubs would have the edge.  This one is a toss up.

In summary, Cubs are the better team on paper and their body of work this season is dominant from a numbers stand point. Home-field advantage certainly helps with Cubs having won 55 games in Wrigley this year. If the Cubs continue to do what they’ve been doing all year, this series will go by quickly.  I like the Cubs in 4.

If you haven’t already, get your free download: A Fan’s Guide to the 2008 Cubs Playoffs from CubHub.net!