Clark & Addison Blog - CubHub.net

I usually don’t write specifically about other sites but in this case I want to point out a Cubs blog with some pretty unique content. The site is CubsF/X and posts some pretty serious data on pitch location, spin, trajectory, velocity, statistical trends and in-depth analysis.  This looks to be a good site for deep stats guys which I admit to being on occasion.  (Yes, my day job is in IT however I despise Star Trek so I’m not a total propeller-head)

Some really interesting charts on Rich Hardin and Chad Gaudin as well as Big Z’s last outing. The detail on this blog is staggering and analysis is insightful.  Check it out here.

Which All-Stars earned the trip to New York?

July 10, 2008

There’s an old saying in Chicago: Vote early, vote often. Well, that certainly seemed to be the case for Cubs fans this season, as seven representatives of the Cubs were selected to play in the All-Star Game. You get the feeling there may have been some ballot-stuffing going on…Which of course is within every fan’s right. (Boston fans, by the way, voted in five of their own, which is no small feat in the American League, competing against Yankee fans.) But how close did fans and players actually come to selecting the most-deserving all-stars based on Win Shares and OPS? Here are the starters selected for the All-Star Game, broken down by league, compared to leaders in Win Shares and OPS at their respective positions:

Used with permission from John Dewan’s Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.

Media types like to associate the wind or the coziness of Wrigley Field with big home run numbers.  Visiting media tend to link the term “Windy City” with the weather. Actually, Chicago was first called the Windy City due to the blustery civic rhetoric used by the city fathers to promote the rebuilding of Chicago following the Great Chicago Fire of 1871.  As a city being rebuilt, there were lots of claims of newer, better, bigger that ruffled some feathers out East. So Chicago was dubbed the Windy City for the civic-minded propaganda, not the weather. But I digress..

The facts will show the wind actually blows in a full two-thirds of the season on average, with most of the days it blows out (S-SW wind) coming in the heat of summer. The dimensions of 353′ & 355′ down the lines are actually among the longest in the majors. True to say the park holds fewer fans than most, and the seats are very close to the field, but the playing dimensions are actually pretty respectable when compared to the other major league ballparks.

So far this year, Wrigley Field ranks 9th overall in HRs (US Cellular is first), although the Cubs have played at home more than not.  In 2007 Wrigley ranked 8th in HRs, in 2003 17th, and in 2001 ranked 22nd overall.  And Sammy Sosa alone hit 53 home runs at Wrigley in ‘01 & ‘03.  So I contend Wrigley Field isn’t such a hitters paradise as the national media might lead you to believe.  (And don’t get me started again on Joe Morgan and his ineptness)

Sheffield and Waveland Home Runs in 2008

The following is a breakdown of the 8 home runs hit at Wrigley Field that have landed on the streets of Sheffield Ave. (right field) and Waveland Ave. (left field) so far this season. 

Cubs:   1 on Sheffield, 1on Waveland, total: 2
Opponent:   2 on Sheffield, 4on Waveland, total: 6

Most Recent HR to reach Sheffield:
5/12/08, Jody Gerut (SD) off Carlos Zambrano

Most Recent HR to reach Waveland:
6/20/08, Jermaine Dye (CWS) off Ted Lilly

The Cubs diminutive (listed at 5 foot, 8 inches) reserve second baseman Mike Fontenot has found some power lately.  Maybe manager Lou Piniella will begin to take note as he has homered in 3 of his last 8 games - and Lou pinch hit for him immediately following two of those home runs!

On June 21 Fontenot went back-to-back with Jim Edmonds. Later that same inning Edmonds homered again, but mysteriously Lou pinch hit for Fontenot!  Lou later referred to it as a ’senior moment’, admitting his mistake. 

 Then on June 27 Fontenot homered in the 5th inning against the White Sox.  His next turn at bat, Lou pinch hit with Matt Murton who flied out.  Fontenot stayed in the game last night but did not come to bat again.  I wonder if Lou will sit him or play him in tonight’s finale in San Francisco?

Mike Fontenot is quietly hitting .321 over the past two weeks, going 9 for 28 with 3 doubles, 3 HRs and a .750 slugging percentage.

With today’s spectacular win over the dreaded White Sox, the Cubs have impressively won 11 of the last 13 series-opening games.  That’s an incredible stat, not unlike a pitcher getting strike one with the first pitch to a hitter. Winning the opening game of a series puts the opposing team on the defensive and slides momentum slightly in the Cubs favor. So much of this game is about trends and momentum its just great to see a stat like this. 

Lou Piniella has apparently anointed Reed Johnson for his lead-off batter in Alfonso Soriano’s absence.  Of course Lou is apt to change his mind on occasion, but for now that’s the way it is.  Reed provides some spark and has a gamer attitude, but he’s far from the prototypical #1 slot hitter based on his numbers.

Johnson has a .342 on-base percentage which is actually ten points higher than Soriano. But the entire world knows Soriano is a free-swinger and OBP is not his claim to fame.  Johnson is batting just .267 this year and has 13 walks in 176 at bats. He doesn’t steal bases with just 4 bags all year. So why then does Lou want him in the leadoff spot? 

Ryan Theriot is batting .310 with a .388 OBP. He leads the team with 13 steals and has 32 walks. He, too, is a gamer who can work the count and makes contact with just 23 strikeouts as compared to Johnson’s 28 k’s in 76 fewer at bats.  So why is Lou not comfortable with Theriot batting lead-off with Fukudome 2nd, followed by Lee, Ramirez, Soto…?  This was the lineup I advocated in March (with the exception of Soriano in the 5th spot).  Statistcally, this lineup matches the modern day thinking of ideal hitters for each slot.  You want an on-base guy who can run leading off, a contact guy who can hit situationally second, your best overall hitter third, your power guy in cleanup, and a big bat in the 5th hole to protect your cleanup guy.  That’s how you draw it up on paper and if you have the personnel, its a winning formula. 

So tell me why Lou doesn’t buy into this?  Sure, hard to argue with the manager of a team 20 games over .500 in June, but surely worth discussion…

What’s better than ERA to measure a pitcher’s effectiveness?

June 5, 2008

For hitters, for years and years, it was batting average that was thought to be the best single statistic to look at to evaluate a hitter. In the last couple of decades, the weaknesses of batting average have been exposed and the value of getting on base and hitting for power have become better recognized. The stat that is becoming the new standard for hitters is OPS—On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage.

For pitchers, the standard is ERA. Compared to batting average, it provides a much better representation of effectiveness. It measures the most important quality of a pitcher’s job, preventing runs. However, it too has its flaws. The biggest flaw is that a pitcher’s ERA can be greatly affected by the pitchers that immediately follow him in a game, both positively and negatively.

Enter Opponent OPS. This is a stat that you hardly ever see. It makes just as much sense to look at Opponent OPS for pitchers as it does to look at a hitter’s own OPS. We just recently added this as a leaderboard titled “Opponent OPS” to Bill James Online and I wanted to share it with you.ERA is going to continue to be the standard, and I will personally look at ERA for every pitcher, but I think Opponent OPS may be a better indicator of a pitcher’s overall effectiveness. In fact, in a way, we’ve been suggesting this for quite a while as we’ve published component ERA in the Bill James Handbook. Component ERA is, in essence, a restated Opponent OPS since it is based on nearly the exact same components that go into OPS, namely hits, home runs, walks allowed, and hit batsmen. Opponent OPS adds in doubles and triples allowed as part of the equation.Here are the Opponent OPS leaders thus far this year:

With all the hubub over Kerry Wood being the Cubs closer this year, it merits notice that the guy has been outstanding so far. For example, he’s worked 6 of the last 8 games saving all of them. In fact, Wood has given up just 2 runs (both earned) since May 2nd - that’s 19 appearances, 20 1/3 innings pitched, 26 strikeouts, 5 walks, earning 13 saves.

Kerry Wood leads the National League in saves with 17. He has been lights out; absolutely what was hoped for in anointing him Closer. Not much is being said about him lately and maybe that’s a good thing. But he deserves his due. Carlos Marmol gets a lot of fuss and is the heir-apparent for years to come (Mariano Rivera comparisons aside). But Woody has gotten it done in a workmanlike way so far this year. And he’s healthy too! …knock on Wood. (add John Smoltz to the PTGHEY - Players That Get Hurt Every Year list I wrote about here.)